Will history repeat itself?

Tom Joomjaroen
Jun 9
3 min read

With the largest national rebate for home batteries coming on July 1st, 2025 (Cheaper Home Battery Program), rather than tell you why to buy a battery, I want to tell you about what happened when STCs launched for solar back in 2011 and the pros and cons that had to see if we can avoid history repeating itself.

When I tell people I work in the solar and battery industry, it often gets a mixed reaction. Some people have a negative mindset towards our industry because of poor experiences they or someone they know have had. I explain to them that unfortunately, when an industry is fueled by government incentives, it does attract some poor players to the space who are often the main contributors to customers' bad experiences.

When STCs came to the market in 2011, installations soared to unprecedented levels, with some of the highest costs of energy in the world, one of the largest percentages of homes suitable for solar, and plenty of sunlight compared to some countries. Solar was always going to excel in Australia, and STCs added fuel to the fire.

What didn’t go so well

Cheap and Nasty

In the solar boom, we saw the rise of cheap solar systems, with a pretty simple sales recipe. Advertise an insanely cheap bundle price with numbers that make no sense to the everyday homeowner, show some happy families that saved thousands of dollars, explain that you get a discount because of a government incentive, and to build some trust, get an ex-Australian Cricketer to advertise it for you (this still happens today, by the way).

This model uses very low-quality products and is installed by very low-paid subcontractors. Lots of people got solar installed this way; some got lucky and had a decent experience, more didn’t/don’t.

New products galore

There was also a rapid rise of new panel and inverter entrants to the market, with the vast majority of those no longer operating in Australia or at all. The CEC did eventually tighten this up, and many lost their accreditation.

I don’t expect that we will see the same volume of manufacturers entering the battery space like we saw in the solar panel space, but there will be some. Be mindful of what products you choose as they are high-value products and have long warranty periods. We only sell the well-established brands in Australia that have proven themselves to perform and serve the Australian market.

Exaggerated savings claims

Savings are the main reason the majority of people get solar installed. Unfortunately, many people feel like they never got the savings they were promised. From my experience, these are the main reasons people were disappointed in their savings:

Overestimating self-consumption - the assumptions used meant you used more of the solar during daylight hours than you really did, resulting in a smaller Feed-in Tariff credit than a bill saving.
Feed-in tariff assumptions - Feed-in tariffs were much higher in previous years and now have fallen to next to nothing. But many quotes assumed higher FiTs than customers would even get back when they got solar installed.
Poor system design & scoping - Either sold the wrong size system for the home, either too large, too small, or shouldn’t have been sold at all.

Crystal Ball for the battery rebate

What will this rebate bring?

Lots of solar installers will be quickly getting their battery accreditation to cash in on the rebate. So I expect some pretty average installations from July 1.
Expect new product entrants to flood the battery market like never before, with the focus being on the lowest price, not safety or innovation.
Disappointed customers with the savings. You need to be charging and discharging your battery as much as possible to get the most benefit. Batteries aren’t for everybody, but inevitably some of the wrong customers will be sold batteries.
Installer companies will rise and fall.

What customers should do?

Stick to well-known products in Australia. If it's a new product or isn't a well-known product, tread with caution.
Get quotes from qualified designers, not call centers. There are actually a lot of rules and regulations about installing a battery in Australia. It's better to have someone at your home making sure your home is suitable.
To design a battery system correctly, a deep analysis of your usage must occur. If this isn't done when providing a quote, this is a huge red flag.

In summary, the solar industry boomed with the implementation of STCs, with a rapid increase in installations. Yes, this was a win, but not everybody won. There were and still are horror stories of poor installation, poor designs, and flat-out thefts. The Cheaper for Batteries Scheme will also see a mass battery uptake with amazing results, but inevitably some bad experiences will occur.